I Predict: Obama by 3.7 points
As I told The Washington Post, I predict Obama will win the official vote count by 3.7 points. Let's see how I do.
Bear in mind, of course, that Obama is leading by 10 points in most polls. The 6.3 percent discount is for sleazy Ohio vote challengers, the Bradley effect, and the blocked/purged voter registrations documented ably by Greg Palast.
Bear in mind, of course, that Obama is leading by 10 points in most polls. The 6.3 percent discount is for sleazy Ohio vote challengers, the Bradley effect, and the blocked/purged voter registrations documented ably by Greg Palast.
posted by Ted Rall at
6:26 AM
4 Comments:
Let's just say that predicting McCain as repug frontrunner was a great achievement.
Seems reasonable. +3% is about all he needs for a sure thing.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that you're under counting this, because in fact the polls are under counting. I think that if Obama wins at all, it will be by more than 5 points, and that the electoral college will be by a very large margin.
I've become more convinced over the past month or two that this election will not be close. One of them is going to win big; either everything is wrong and Americans can't pull the lever for Obama, or this is already a blowout in his favor.
Either way the criminals will just go back to scheming for the next one. But We'll see, Ted, I think 3.7 is pretty conservative.
I think the Bradley Effect will be minimal at best. The biggest problem will be all the voter purges in the tossup states. However, if you check NPR, Obama still wins so long as he wins all the Strong Dem and Leaning Dem states. He doesn't even need to win the tossup states.
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